Market Movers: Weekly Insights [30th September 2024]

Introduction

This week, market participants will closely monitor key U.S. economic data releases, particularly the ISM manufacturing and non-manufacturing PMIs and the highly anticipated Non-Farm Payroll (NFP) report. These indicators will provide crucial insights into the performance of the U.S. economy in the third quarter. The dollar's recent strength hinges on whether these reports align with the Federal Reserve's optimistic economic outlook. As investors assess the need for further monetary policy adjustments, the dollar may strengthen if the data supports continued employment and business activity resilience.

Key Focus on ISM PMIs and NFP Report: What to Expect

Before the payroll data is released, the September ISM manufacturing and non-manufacturing PMIs, set to be announced on Tuesday and Thursday, respectively, may be closely examined for early indications of how the world’s largest economy performed in the third quarter. If the figures align with Powell’s recent statement following last week’s decision, indicating that the economy is in good condition, the dollar could strengthen as investors reassess the need for another significant policy move. 

However, for the dollar to maintain its gains, Friday’s jobs report must also show improvement. Current forecasts suggest that the U.S. economy added 145k jobs in September, slightly above August's 142k, with the unemployment rate remaining steady at 4.2%. Average hourly earnings are expected to decelerate slightly to 0.3% month-on-month from 0.4%.  

Conclusion: STRONG DOLLAR 

XAUUSD Signal  

SELL : 2661.92 

SL : 2678.18 

TP : 2633.71 

Conclusion

As the week unfolds, the ISM PMI and NFP report will be key drivers of market sentiment, particularly for the U.S. dollar. A strong showing in these reports could confirm the Fed’s view that the economy remains robust, potentially propelling the dollar higher. Conversely, weaker-than-expected data may dampen expectations for additional rate moves, impacting both currency and commodity markets. For now, the outlook favours a strong dollar, particularly if the employment data signals continued economic resilience, while gold prices may face downward pressure in light of a strengthening greenback.