Market Movers: Weekly Insights [23 September 2024]

As we approach the end of September 2024, the financial markets are poised for potentially significant movements, particularly in the USD and gold sectors. This week's focus on US Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) data could have far-reaching implications for currency strength and economic outlook. Recent trends in retail sales, inflation, and price indices suggest a potential uptick in PCE figures, which may bolster the US dollar. Additionally, the anticipated 50 basis point interest rate cut presents a double-edged sword for economic stimulation and inflationary pressures.

USD Potentially Stronger When PCE data  

This week, investors will focus on US PCE data. If you look at some of the past data series, namely, Core retail and retail sales, Core CPI and CPI, and Manufacturing and services price index, you will see some increase compared to the previous month. This shows that consumption and inflation data have increased, so it is likely that this week's PCE data also has the potential to rise and strengthen the dollar.  

50bps Cut Puts Economy Back in Motion  

We know that interest rate cuts can encourage the economy to turn stronger because borrowing interest becomes smaller. In the near future, we will see a high probability of inflation rising again, followed by an increase in the labor sector.  

XAUUSD Signal

Buy Limit: 2593  

SL: 2580  

TP: 2630 

In conclusion, the coming week promises to be pivotal for investors and market watchers alike. The confluence of potentially stronger PCE data and the impending interest rate cut sets the stage for dynamic market conditions. While a stronger dollar may emerge from positive PCE figures, the broader economic implications of the rate cut could lead to renewed inflationary pressures and labor market shifts. For gold traders, the provided XAUUSD signal suggests a cautiously optimistic outlook, with a buy limit set at 2593. As always, investors should remain vigilant and adaptable in these evolving economic circumstances, keeping a close eye on both short-term data releases and longer-term policy impacts.